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The Oslo Accords:   

Initiated in 1993 (Oslo I) and expanded in 1995 (Oslo II), emerged from a shifting global landscape and a pragmatic recognition by both Israeli and Palestinian leadership that a negotiated settlement was essential. The First Intifada highlighted the vulnerability of the PLO’s isolated leadership, while Israel’s Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin saw an opportunity in Arafat’s weakened position.  

Oslo I established mutual recognition between Israel and the Palestinian Authority, along with a Declaration of Principles. Key tenets included Israeli staged withdrawals from occupied territories (initially Gaza and Jericho) and the formation of an elected Palestinian Authority to replace the PLO. Core issues like Jerusalem, refugees, borders, and settlements were deferred. Palestinians viewed this as a foundational step towards statehood.

Oslo II elaborated on these agreements, mandating Palestinian Authority elections, prisoner releases, further Israeli withdrawals from Palestinian cities, and PA responsibility for combating terrorism. Crucially, it divided the territories into three areas: Area A (Palestinian autonomous cities, 3% of territory), Area B (Palestinian control with Israeli security oversight, 23%), and Area C (direct Israeli control, 74%). Despite broad initial support, there were skeptics on both side driven by their repective maximalist ideologies and a sense of injustice.

The Oslo process began to collapse by 2000 due to several factors:

Asymmetrical Power Dynamic: The agreement was seen as inherently unequal, with a militarily dominant Israel exploiting vulnerable Palestinians.

Delayed Gratification: Israel secured immediate security and an end to the Intifada, while Palestinians faced prolonged waiting for core demands like settlement removal, a state of their own, and resolution of the refugee issue.

Erosion of Palestinian Leverage: Recognizing Israel meant Palestinians relinquished 78% of historic Palestine and their primary negotiation tool-violence.

Entrenchment of Occupation: Israel’s construction of “bypass roads” fragmented Palestinian land and reinforced the perception of an escalating, entrenched occupation. *

Internal Opposition: Opponents on both sides, including Israeli Likud members and Palestinian youth and intellectuals, decried the accords as a betrayal.

Violence and Retaliation: The 1994 Hebron massacre of Palestinians and the 1995 assassination of Yitzhak Rabin by extremist elements seeking to preserve Israeli control over the West Bank severely damaged the peace process.

Rise of Hamas: Frustration over settlements and perceived Israeli deception empowered Hamas, which rejected Oslo as treason and escalated violence severely disturbing the political climate.

Political Shifts: The election of a Likud government hostile to Oslo in 1996, followed by Benjamin Netanyahu’s approval of new settlements in East Jerusalem, further stalled and ultimately killed the process by 2000.

CAMP DAVID July 2000: By 2000 the Oslo peace process had almost collapsed. In the Israeli elections of 1999 only two of the twelve competing parties spoke of the need for peace negotiations showing widespread disinclination on the part of Israeli political set up. However the newly elected government under Ehud Barack had pledged to revive negotiations with the Palestinians. In July 2000 Barack and Yasser Arafat were summoned to Camp David in the United States by President Bill Clinton. Following was offered to Arafat by Israel:

1. Israel would withdraw from 87-92% of the West Bank

2. Israel would withdraw from 100% of Gaza

3. JERUSALEM ISSUE: (The most sensitive and decisive factor) A. Palestinians will have sovereignty over some Arab neighborhoods of East Jerusalem B. Only functional autonomy in the old city’s Muslim areas, not complete sovereignty C. Israeli sovereignty over the ground beneath the plateau of al-Haram al-Sharif /Temple Mount while Palestinians will have custodianship, not sovereignty over al-Haram/Temple Mount, the structures over the plateau. So neither Israel nor Palestinians were to have sovereignty over al-Haram Temple Mount and Palestinians will have custodianship over it. But the catch was Israel will have full sovereignty over the ground beneath the plateau putting Palestinian custodianship very vulnerable for Israeli manipulation in future. D. Israeli sovereignty over the Western Wall E. Israeli sovereignty over Jewish neighborhoods of East Jerusalem

4. Israel will accept a limited number of Palestinian refugees of about 5000 to a maximum of 30,000 but over several years.

5. A long term Israeli military presence in Jord Valley which is a part of West Bank, over 6-12 years and in some accounts 20 years.

6. Israel will control Palestinian airspace 

7. A demilitarized Palestinian State.

Why Camp David did not go through:

1. Palestinians demanded full sovereignty over al-Haram al-Sharif

2. Palestinians accepted limited number of refugees’ return as proposed by Israel but wanted the right of return of the rest of the refugees to be recognized.

3. Even though Israel agreed to withdraw from 88-92% of West Bank, Palestinians saw that they had already lost about 78% of the historic Palestine of before 1967 and the extra loss of land from West Bank with big settlements sitting in that land and in addition, lot of land lost in roadway built by Israel to connect the settlements would leave actually lot less land than what it appears when one says Palestinians will have 92%. Of West Bank.

The Second Intifada (2000-2005) ignited in September 2000 when Likud leader Ariel Sharon, escorted by 1,000 security personnel and helicopters, visited Al-Haram al-Sharif. Palestinians perceived this as a provocative assertion of Israeli control over the holy site. The next day, stone-throwing at Jewish worshippers escalated into Israeli troops killing four Palestinians and wounding over 200, sparking widespread unrest across the West Bank and Gaza. Initially an unarmed uprising, the Intifada saw 1.3 million bullets fired by Israeli troops in its first month, resulting in 127 Palestinian deaths. The West Bank, home to over 2 million Palestinians and nearly 400,000 Jewish settlers, was under Israeli control of over 70% of the land, with complete control over water supply and electricity. The Intifada’s third day saw the widely broadcast killing of 12-year-old Mohammed Al Dura by a sniper. Two weeks later, two Israeli soldiers, lost in Ramallah, were lynched by a mob after being arrested by Palestinian police, an event also captured on camera. In March 2001, Hamas initiated a campaign of suicide bombings within Israel, targeting buses, restaurants, and public spaces. Many Palestinians viewed this as a necessary response to Israel’s overwhelming military superiority. The September 2001 attacks in the United States, where 19 hijackers killed over 3,000 people, had profound repercussions in the Middle East. Following the “War on Terror” declared by President George W. Bush to combat Al Qaeda and Osama bin Laden, Israel began framing Palestinian resistance, particularly Hamas, as international terrorism akin to Al Qaeda. Sharon famously equated Yasser Arafat to bin Laden, ordering simultaneous strikes against Palestinians. In April 2002, Bush lauded Sharon as “a man of peace.”

Operation Defensive Shield (2002) was launched after a March 2002 suicide bombing killed 29 people in Israel. This military operation involved the invasion and reoccupation of West Bank towns to dismantle Palestinian militant infrastructure, causing significant destruction. The IDF destroyed homes and invaded the Jenin refugee camp, where fierce resistance led to 52 Palestinian and 23 Israeli soldier fatalities. Arafat’s compound, the Muqata, was left in ruins, and he lived under virtual house arrest until his death two years later.

The 2002 Arab Peace Plan: A significant Arab diplomatic initiative, proposed Israeli withdrawal to pre-1967 borders, an independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital, and a just solution for refugees, in exchange for Arab recognition of Israel. This plan was proposed by Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah and adopted by the Arab League, later reaffirmed in 2007 and 2017.

Building of security fence and separation wall: In contrast, Israel pursued its own solution with the construction of a security fence/separation wall around the West Bank starting in June 2002. This barrier deviated from the 1967 Green Line, encroaching into Palestinian territory to include Israeli settlement blocks.

Evacuation from Gaza, a political ploy: In April 2003, the “Quartet” (EU, UN, Russia, US) backed a peace roadmap. While Israeli Prime Minister Sharon accepted it to maintain US favor, he also proposed a unilateral disengagement from Gaza announced in December 2003. This move, driven by Gaza’s financial burden and troop deployment, strategically sidelined Yasser Arafat, garnered international support, and preempted US pressure for roadmap implementation. Sharon secured US guarantees ensuring future recognition of major settlement blocs and denying Palestinian refugees their right of return, undermining core Palestinian aspirations.

Rise of Hamas and West’s response to Hamas election victory: Prior to the Gaza withdrawal, Israel attempted to dismantle Hamas leadership. Despite assassinations of key figures like Sheikh Yasin in 2004, Hamas achieved an unexpected victory over Fatah in the January 2006 Palestinian Legislative Council elections. Prominent since the 1990s for its suicide bombings and intensified activity during the Second Intifada, Hamas, designated a terrorist organization by Israel, the US, and later the EU, opposed the Oslo Accords and PA security cooperation with Israel. However, the PA’s inability to achieve tangible benefits from negotiations, particularly ending the occupation and halting settlement expansion, eroded its support, while Hamas continued its attacks, framing them as self-defense and maintaining a long-term goal of an Islamic state in all of Palestine.

Direct Israeli-Palestinian peace talks between PA President Mahmoud Abbas and Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert occurred in 2008. Sticking points included Israel’s insistence on retaining settlements like Ariel and those around Jerusalem. Both leaders were domestically weakened, Abbas by loss of control in Gaza and Olmert by corruption charges. The talks dissolved, never resuming after the December 2008 Gaza war. While West Bank Palestinians received international aid and experienced economic growth, Gazans faced escalating hardship.

Israel’s attack on Gaza 2008: Amidst intermittent Palestinian rocket fire into Israel Israel launched Operation Cast Lead in December 2008, resulting in an estimated 1400 Palestinian deaths, including over 300 children, and extensive destruction of homes and factories.

Election of Barack Obama and his hypocrisy: Barack Obama’s election in 2008 initially offered hope, but his stance on Israeli settlements proved inconsistent. Despite telling Netanyahu in January 2009 that settlement building was illegitimate, the US vetoed a UN Security Council resolution condemning settlements in 2011. Netanyahu’s defiance was facilitated by the strong Israeli lobby in Congress and the support of evangelical Christians.

Netanyahu and his right wing government: The February 2009 elections brought Prime Minister Netanyahu’s right-wing government to power, heavily influenced by the settler lobby, renouncing previous peace proposals.

War on Gaza second time: In June 2014, Fatah and Hamas reconciled, forming a Fatah-dominated government. Netanyahu accused Abbas of aligning with terrorists and halted PA revenue transfers. The subsequent kidnapping and killing of three Israeli teenagers from a West Bank settlement, for which Hamas was blamed despite no direct order, led to the arrest of hundreds of Hamas supporters. Escalation followed the abduction and murder of a Palestinian teenager in East Jerusalem. Gaza-based rocket fire and Israeli air strikes resulted in over 2000 Palestinian deaths, mostly civilians, and 72 Israeli casualties. While the US and EU affirmed Israel’s right to self-defense, the international focus on Palestinian suffering waned after the fighting.

Donald Trump in Office: Donald Trump’s presidency emboldened the Israeli government. Even before his inauguration in January 2017, Trump signaled his pro-Israeli stance and disregard for international law. He recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, appointed David Friedman, a supporter of West Bank settlements, as US ambassador, and transferred the US embassy to Jerusalem in May 2018, declaring Jerusalem off the negotiating table. In November 2019, the US no longer considered Israeli settlements illegal. Trump’s January 2020 peace plan proposed annexing the Jordan Valley for Israeli security, incorporating most settlements into Israel (over 30% of the West Bank), and offering Palestinians a state with its capital in Abbudid, a proposal seen as a mockery of Palestinian aspirations.

The Boycott, Divestment, and Sanctions (BDS) movement, founded in 2005 by over 170 Palestinian groups, aims to pressure Israel to recognize Palestinian rights through boycotts, disinvestment, and sanctions on companies involved with illegal settlements and those doing business with them, championing the rights of all Palestinians.

Crisis of May 2021: Violence erupted in May 2021, triggered by threatened Palestinian evictions in East Jerusalem’s Sheik Jarrah neighborhood and subsequent confrontations that spread to the Al-Aqsa Mosque. Hamas issued an ultimatum to Israel to withdraw forces, followed by rocket fire into Israel and Israeli airstrikes. The 11-day conflict resulted in 278 Palestinian deaths in Gaza, including 66 children, and 13 Israeli deaths from nearly 3000 rockets fired by Hamas and Islamic Jihad.

October 7, 2023: Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel, firing rockets and breaching the border. Over 1300 Israelis, primarily civilians were killed and 251 Israelis were taken to Gaza as hostages by Hamas. Israel retaliated with aerial bomabrdment and ground offennsive. This conflict continued for two and half years and has resulted in more than 70,000 Palestinian deaths, a third of them children and the destruction of 90% of Gaza’s infrastructure.